From Past Eruptions to Future Hazards: An Interdisciplinary Volcanological Investigation of Active Volcanoes in Central Anatolia, Turkey

Explosive volcanic eruptions in composite volcanoes and collapse calderas represent complex geological phenomena characterized by the violent release of magma, ash, and gases. The interplay between magma composition, gas content, the structural characteristics of the Earth’s crust, and the stratovolcanoes substrate creates a dynamic setting with the potential for catastrophic events. Understanding the intricacies of explosive eruptions in this type of volcanism is crucial for hazard assessment and risk mitigation, given their propensity to impact local and even global environments.

These events are notably described in the geological record of the Central Anatolian Volcanic Province (CAVP) in Turkey (Schmitt et al., 2011; Dogan et al., 2013; Friedrichs et al., 2020), a region of significant interest and focal point of the TURVO research project. Nestled within the tectonically intricate Anatolian Plateau, this volcanic province hosts a cluster of stratovolcanoes, collapse calderas, and monogenetic volcanoes with diverse ages and eruptive histories that cause different volcanic hazard scenarios. Our project focuses on advancing the understanding of explosive eruptions and their related volcanic hazards in the Acigöl, Hasandağ, and Erciyes volcanoes. These volcanoes are the most active (Pleistocene-Holocene, Schmitt et al., 2011) and largest volcanic structures in the CAVP, with the last eruption of Hasandağ dated at ~9 ky and at least 14 more eruptions in the past 60 ky (Schmitt et al., 2014; Friedrichs et al., 2020). Additionally, Acigöl erupted ~25 – 20 ky ago (Schmitt et al., 2011), while Erciyes witnessed three massive explosive eruptions during the Holocene, dispersing tephra across the Mediterranean and Black Sea (Hamman et al., 2010; Cullen et al., 2014; Friedrichs et al., 2020).

Considering these factors, the starting hypothesis of the TURVO project posits that all three target volcanoes have the potential to produce massive explosive eruptions capable of impacting the Mediterranean region and European countries in the near future. Nevertheless, significant knowledge gaps persist regarding the eruptive history of their most voluminous eruptions, their absolute ages, the dispersion and extension of their explosive fall deposits across the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe, and the long-term hazard assessment. For this purpose, we propose the implementation of an methods, along with geophysical survey, geochemistry, data analysis, and numerical modeling in this active volcanic region of Turkey. Through this holistic methodology, our goal is to comprehensively understand the dynamics of volcanic activity in these large explosive volcanoes, spanning from the past geological record to the potential future hazards.

This initiative extends beyond refining hazard assessments and enhancing mitigation strategies for the CAVP, and strives to develop a versatile methodology applicable to global future volcanic hazards. Securing funding for the study of these active composite volcanoes via Proyectos de Generación de Conocimiento is not only relevant for risk mitigation in Europe and the Mediterranean countries but also holds broader implications for understanding volcanic eruptions in other composite volcanoes and collapse calderas, such those in the Canary Islands. While the latter archipelago shares some similarities with the CAVP, such as the presence of stratovolcanoes with large explosive deposits, the CAVP’s provides a unique perspective on massive explosive volcanic eruptions in a continental setting. Moreover, a comprehensive analysis of the geological record in a particular region can provide valuable insights into underlying volcanic processes common among other volcanic systems worldwide.

This, in turn, can contribute to quantitative hazard assessment and preparedness for eruptions at other similar or analog volcanoes (Tierz et al., 2019). Thus, the expected results of TURVO hold significance contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of volcanic processes on a global scale. In addition, the project’s scope extends beyond the immediate geographic vicinity. Completing the regional tephrostratigraphic framework in the CAVP is crucial for synchronizing sedimentary records across Europe, especially in Mediterranean countries. Correlating tephra units across these extended regions facilitates a comprehensive understanding of significant past volcanic events and their potential implications for palaeoenvironmental and/or archaeological registers. This broader perspective not only enhances our ability to assess volcanic hazards but also fosters collaboration and knowledge exchange across borders with a transdisciplinary perspective, aligning with international efforts in disaster risk reduction and scientific cooperation.

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